Context is important and Russell Martin did say the club can still do something in the transfer market if it’s urgent and they need to (which they do, so they must.) However…
If you’re just annoyed that the club still need to sell, then you are entitled to that feeling (it costing the club £50m to only make the XI as good as last season is less than ideal). But if you’re surprised, then you just haven’t been listening.
It’s been made clear by leadership all summer that the money isn’t there. £100m spent on mostly rubbish in 2022/23, £100m losses between June 2021-2023 and relegation affecting PSR limits + off-pitch ££ (MSD loan). Sales last summer merely filled the black hole.
Big concern for me is that the sellable assets are all still here. Bella-Kotchap, Onuachu, Kamaldeen, Walker-Peters (under strict ransom though). Going to be interesting to see how Saints navigate these next three weeks - need a lot in and out. Bigger conversation above my pay grade and understanding is whether these PSR rules are right for the game.
Also, this isn’t to say the club aren’t making offers or going to do anything first - they’ve clearly been in for players, had bids rejected and Russell Martin’s hinted at bringing in one or two soon. This is just context as to why they’re not throwing £30m bids about.
Exactly. When you analyse our assets as well, its a bit bleaker.
Alcaraz - though loaned with a 40m tag, we and the world know he's not worth that. Wildness in positioning and tactical discipline make him a gamble for us to play (and consequently increase in value), and a gamble for us to find a buyer. He could sell at a profit, but I think it'd be a stretch today to find a suitor pay even 12-15m. Expectation: Small profit
ABK - if the injury issues are resolved, then he can go on past reputation and early promise with us in relegation season. 10-15m bracket likely. Expectation: Small profit
Sulemana - Struggle to see how even come close to recouping our money on this one. Beyond jet heeled pace, he doesnt have a body of work with us or before us to sell him from. I doubt we'd get 10m for him. Expectation: Loss
Onuachu - no need to analyse this. Expectation: Big loss
Mara - Hard to view him as having increased in value. Doesnt help that French football is in a TV money crisis. Like Alcaraz, we face the dilemma that first team may suffer if we gamble playing him more regularly to develop him and increase his value. Realistically, you'd expect us to take a bit of a loss with a sell on clause. Expectation: Loss
Edozie - little sign of where his ceiling is as a player. Feels more useful to us as depth than as a sellable asset. At this point in time if we made him available, it'd probably be Championship clubs interested?, but maybe this season he kicks on. At present, expectation: loss / longer-term: break even or makes financial sense through length of stay with club
Bazunu - possibly retains value through reputation as a ballplaying keeper, an exotic species. We'll be in the strange place with him where he'll probably need to be contract renewed without having been re-tested through playing another minute in the PL. That sets us up for another McCarthy-ish big contract to a goalkeeper who we then cant shift but cant trust on the pitch. Expectation : break-even able if we are able to sell and dont give him an astronomical wage
Larios - who knows?! You would optimistically say if he could put half a season of fitness and breakthrough together that at the very least a Spanish club would want some of that and there'd be some profit. Expectation: small profit
Aribo - an enigma, clearly proven himself like Edozie as a player who you value as squad depth rather than an asset. Cant remember if we signed him on a free or not. His past reputation in European matches withstanding, expectation: small profit.
Charles - should retain his value, but we're really sat in a long-view situation with him as his development has been slower/stunted by circumstance. Likewise, SAA, Dibling, Meghoma - no prospects as of now of any significant windfall if cashed. Expectation: not able to generate profit on these within next 2 years.
And so on. I would say with all of the above that a) the club wouldnt be aflush with interest in most cases on recent form/reputation and b) we are probably currently already at or near that special 2-years-left-to-go on contract point where you have to give consideration to contract renewal or waiting and possible depreciation in value.
Bednarek and KWP are 1 year to go, but also defensive players, so minus a little less scrumwork in transfer interest. Sigmificant money could be generated, say 30m...but its really down to the size of a well-run medium sized top flight club's wallet and strength of their erection for the player. And it could all easily go wrong and they leave for nothing.
Skipping over Ross Stewart, Smallbone, Bree, Manning.. You basically arrive at the next asset where significant profit is tangible being ... THB, who was signed with a sell-on clause. And then you're on to the new signings who need time and luck to mature and increase in value.
Financially, what that says is we're likely to make a loss through the overall trading cycle of 4-5 years from Sports Republic taking over. If we stay up, then you would imagine the TV revenue of this season and next season mitigates that and we can look at a third PL season in 2026-2027 with more ambition and less restraint. Where we are now is that we have a double problem - poor assets, many of whom currently commanding low interest who also arent very useful as actual players for us. The usual solution to that is loaning them out, but we then have to spend money to replace them. Our best bet this year might again be 2 or 3 key squad loan signings. Loan signings at this level are harder to do and be successful. They also offer no potential for future income whereas a new signing does. Whichever way you look at it, we almost certainly will be ridiculously busy in the final week of the window, we'll have no choice but to wheel and deal with what fate brings to our attention.
I assume FFP means we have a double imperative to predict what the future transfer out imcome is likely to be for the next 12 months. We are very tied in our spending short term without outgoings. A slow burn of money coming in over the next few seasons to come close to eventually not quite breaking even is probably the most optimistic result they could probably expect to actually occur.
If you take the hope that Russ might last as long as Ralph did, he faces the very real prospect of a tenure spent bumping his head on the ceiling that Ralph did too where squad depth or replacements are either young and callow or too cut price.
Ultimately, there's always hope, but I dont think there's much room for any analysis that doesnt see us as being significantly encumbered with lead in our running boots for the next 2 years.
I would say though, that the board and the manager have to come to one surefire conclusion: huge emphasis/priority needs to go to making SAA and Dibling's development successful. I would also hunch the Japanese and Brazilian signings recently are us trying to innovate a new way of additional recruiting that cheaply buys us a chance of finding a gem or a profitable future sale/ pure profit on FFP.